Live NFL MVP odds and best bets

Jalen Hurts
Oct 9, 2022; Glendale, Arizona, U.S.; Philadelphia Eagles fans cheer for Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts after their team won 20-17 against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium. © Michael Chow/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK

With five weeks in the books, it’s time to start taking a serious look at the NFL MVP odds in 2022.

Preseason MVP betting is a thing of the past now that we’ve played nearly one-third of the season. That’s why we wanted to share the updated NFL MVP odds and a breakdown of how the top candidates have performed so far.

NFL MVP odds in 2022

Most of the time, the live NFL MVP odds are just the league’s best quarterbacks ranked. But this has been such an unusual season thus far that not all of the usual suspects have performed up to their usual level.

Player Odds To Win 2022 NFL MVP
Josh Allen +200
Patrick Mahomes +420
Lamar Jackson +550
Jalen Hurts +600
Justin Herbert +1600
Joe Burrow +3500
Aaron Rodgers +3800
Kyler Murray +4000
Kirk Cousins +4000
Tom Brady +4000

All odds taken October 11 at FanDuel Sportsbook

Let’s take a look at how that has impacted the NFL MVP odds for 2022 five weeks into the season.

Josh Allen, +200

There should be no doubt that Josh Allen is the current NFL MVP odds leader. If you want to look ahead toward next year, he’ll probably be the leader in the 2023 NFL MVP odds. He’s having an incredible season thus far, especially after throwing for 424 yards and four touchdowns in Week 5 against the Steelers.

Being Buffalo’s leading rusher isn’t hurting his MVP case either, even if it’s not necessarily healthy for the Bills. He’ll have to ease up a little on the interceptions after throwing four in five games.

But Allen is currently averaging 330 passing yards per game and appears to have the playmakers around him to keep putting up MVP-caliber numbers all years. Equally important, the Bills are winning and look like one of the elite teams in the NFL.

Patrick Mahomes, +420

Patrick Mahomes has the second-shortest NFL MVP odds in 2022, and it’s hard to imagine him not being among the favorites all season. As usual, the Chiefs are arguably the biggest offensive juggernaut in the league, primarily because of Mahomes.

He’s adjusted relatively quickly to a new set of receivers around him with Tyreek Hill no longer in Kansas City. That has answered one of the few questions we had about Mahomes ahead of the season, leaving little doubt he’ll be on the MVP shortlist all season.

Lamar Jackson, +550

After three games, Lamar Jackson had crazy numbers that clearly made him an MVP contender. He’s cooled off a little over the last couple of weeks, but not enough to forget about him as an MVP candidate.

The fact that Jackson is having a good season as a passer while also averaging 7.6 yards per carry as a runner makes him an intriguing candidate. Most of the quarterbacks in the discussion are mobile, but Jackson is practically a running back who’s also used to throwing the ball.

Of course, five interceptions in five games are hurting his case. But the way Jackson is carrying the Baltimore offense with his dual-threat skills is impossible to ignore.

Jalen Hurts, +600

Why are the Eagles 5-0? Look no further than Jalen Hurts, who is a newcomer to the MVP discussion this year.

Granted, Hurts has a good supporting cast around him. But he’s also leading one of the most balanced and explosive offenses in the league. As a passer, Hurts has made incredible strides while also showcasing his abilities as a runner.

The caveat is that his team’s success is carrying his MVP case at the moment. After five games, Hurts has just four touchdown passes. If he wants to remain in the MVP discussion all season, the numbers need to match up better against some of the other quarterbacks in the race.

Justin Herbert, +1600

Posting impressive numbers has never been an issue for Justin Herbert. He’s kept that up this season, throwing 10 touchdown passes in five games while averaging nearly 300 passing yards per game. He’s also limited himself to just two interceptions in five games, which is a step in the right direction.

Herbert has had a disadvantage because he won’t put up the same numbers as a rusher as some other MVP candidates. That means he needs to lead the Chargers to wins and make them a serious contender in the AFC to be a serious MVP contender.

Joe Burrow, +3500

At 2-3, this season hasn’t gotten off to the kind of start that Joe Burrow and the Bengals wanted. Naturally, his numbers don’t exactly scream MVP candidate right now. However, Burrow nearly became a serious MVP candidate last year just based on the last month of the season.

With the receivers around him, it’s too soon to rule him out because when Burrow heats up, he’s more than capable of performing at an elite level.

Like Burrow as a longshot? Sign-up to FanDuel Sportsbook for up to $1000 in free bets and back Burrow at +3500.

Aaron Rodgers, +3800

A third straight MVP award may not be in the cards for Aaron Rodgers. You never want to write off a player like him too soon. But Rodgers is struggling a little to adjust to life without Davante Adams.

Virtually all of the other quarterbacks in the MVP discussion have better receivers around them, which makes things so much easier. To be fair, Rodgers is still worth watching, but it seems like there’s too much working against him to win MVP again.

Derek Carr, +4000

The Raiders might have a losing record, but that’s hardly Derek Carr’s fault. He’s done his part and has an outstanding duo of Davante Adams and Mack Hollins at his disposal.

If Las Vegas can turn things around, Carr’s numbers might be enough to make him a serious MVP contender. But if the Raiders aren’t a playoff team, it’s going to be tough to envision Carr as an MVP candidate.

Kyler Murray, +4000

At this point, Kyler Murray’s MVP candidacy is more about potential than what he’s actually done on the field. He and Marquise Brown are working well together, but the Arizona offense still hasn’t clicked with Murray averaging just 5.8 yards per pass.

However, Murray’s arm talent and athleticism give him the ability to get things turned around and put up the type of numbers we see from MVP candidates. Keep in mind the Cardinals will get DeAndre Hopkins back soon, which could give Murray and the Arizona offense a much-needed boost.

Kirk Cousins, +4000

The Vikings are 4-1, and if that winning continues, Kirk Cousins could sneak into the MVP discussion. Of course, with seven touchdown passes compared to five interceptions through five games, the numbers aren’t exactly jumping off the page.

However, Justin Jefferson is going to make plays and pad Cousins’ stats a little. If Dalvin Cook stays healthy, Cousins should have opportunities to throw the ball downfield and improve his stats that way as well. Also, if the Vikings keep winning and turn into one of the elite teams in the NFC, it could be tough to dismiss Cousins as an MVP contender.

Tom Brady, +4000

It’d certainly be a crazy story if Tom Brady went from retired to MVP. His performance through five games isn’t exactly akin to his other MVP seasons.

But Brady is averaging 281 passing yards per game and has just one interception. More importantly, he and the Tampa offense are surely capable of being better. In a way, that makes Brady the ultimate MVP sleeper in 2022 because one would have to be a fool to rule it out entirely.

Best Bet

Looking at all of the NFL MVP odds in 2022, the best betting option right now is Jackson. While Allen is the safe bet and Mahomes might be the obvious bet, Jackson has both value and upside when it comes to being an MVP candidate.

He’s on pace to throw for over 3,600 yards with 41 passing touchdowns while rushing for nearly 1,300 yards. It also wouldn’t be that much of a surprise to see Jackson surpass those numbers, especially if he can throw the ball with a little more accuracy.

If Jackson continues to play at the level he has early in the year and the Ravens maintain their lead atop the AFC North, Jackson will be tough to beat in his quest for his second career MVP award.

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