Super Bowl LV is here, and this should be an amazing game between the Chiefs and Buccaneers on Sunday in Tampa. And you can get in on the action with some DFS lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel, as well as player props on William Hill.
So let’s get to it. We’ll start with the relevant player props for each offensive player, and I have DraftKings and FanDuel rankings and lineups below.
Quarterback Props
(Props listed as Over/Under)
- Patrick Mahomes pass attempts: 40.5 -110/-120 — OVER
- Patrick Mahomes pass completions: 28.5 -105/-125 — OVER
- Patrick Mahomes passing yards: 332.5 -115/-115 — OVER
- Patrick Mahomes passing touchdowns: 2.5 -150/+120 — OVER
- Patrick Mahomes interceptions: 0.5 +150/-180 — OVER
- Patrick Mahomes rush attempts: 4.5 +105/-135 — OVER
- Patrick Mahomes rushing yards: 21.5 -145/+115 — UNDER
Mahomes has been over 41 pass attempts twice in his past four games, and that likely would have been three times over that span if he didn’t suffer a concussion against the Browns in the divisional round. Against Tampa Bay in Week 12, he had 49 pass attempts.
Now, he’s only topped 28 completions once in his past six games, which was the AFC Championship Game against Buffalo, and he completed 37 passes against the Buccaneers in Week 12. With Mahomes saying earlier this week he wants to get the ball out of his hands quickly, I can see a lot of short-area passes being completed in this game.
Mahomes has been over 332 passing yards just once in his past six games, but he does have seven outings at that total or higher, including Week 12 against Tampa Bay when he had 462 yards. I’m banking on a big yardage game for Mahomes again here.
Normally, I would take the under on the passing touchdowns for Mahomes based on the odds at +120, but I can’t see Mahomes throwing for fewer than three touchdowns if the Chiefs have a chance to win. He had three touchdowns against Tampa Bay in the first meeting, and he’s passed for at least three touchdowns twice in his past four games and seven times this year.
I’ll play the odds at +150 for Mahomes to throw an interception. Even though he only has an interception in just four games this season (six total for the year), he could make a mistake against this defense. And the Buccaneers have four interceptions in their three playoff games.
Mahomes has at least five rush attempts in three of his past five games, and he had three carries against the Browns before getting hurt. I’ll play the over at +105. But I’ll take the under on his 21.5 rushing yards given the odds at +115, and he’s only topped that number three times since Week 6.
- Tom Brady pass attempts: 39.5 -110/-120 — OVER
- Tom Brady pass completions: 24.5 -150/+120 — UNDER
- Tom Brady passing yards: 305.5 -115/-115 — OVER
- Tom Brady passing touchdowns: 2.5 +120/-150 — OVER
- Tom Brady interceptions: 0.5 -170/+140 — UNDER
- Tom Brady rushing yards: 0.5 +140/-170 — OVER
Brady has at least 40 pass attempts in two of his past four games, and he’s done that five times since Week 11. He had 41 attempts in Week 12 against Kansas City, and he had at least 41 pass attempts in five of his past six Super Bowl appearances with the Patriots.
I’m going to take the under on his completions given the odds at +120. He’s been under 24 completions in three games in a row and four times in his past five outings. He had 27 completions against the Chiefs in Week 12, but I’ll take the plus number here for the prop.
Prior to the past two playoff games, Brady was over 306 passing yards in four games in a row. He had 345 passing yards against the Chiefs, and he passed for at least 328 yards in three of his past four Super Bowls.
He also passed for at least three touchdowns in two of his past four Super Bowls, and Brady had three touchdowns against the Chiefs in Week 12. Overall, he has at least three touchdown passes in three of his past five games. His over 2.5 passing touchdowns at +120 is among my favorite props for this game.
Even though Brady had two interceptions against the Chiefs in Week 12 and three interceptions against the Packers in the NFC Championship Game, I’m still taking the under on 0.5 interceptions here because of the odds at +140. He does have just two games with an interception (four total) since the first meeting with Kansas City, a span of seven outings. Unfortunately, he does have an interception in four Super Bowls in a row.
Similar to the interceptions prop, I’ll play the odds on the rushing yards prop at 0.5 since it’s +140. He’s only been over 1 rushing yard five times this season, but two of them have come in his past four games.
Heath Cummings and Adam Aizer break down their favorite LV props on the Fantasy Football Today in 5 podcast. Listen below and subscribe at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts:
Running Back Props
(Props listed as Over/Under)
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire rushing attempts: 8.5 +100/-130 — OVER
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire rushing yards: 28.5 -115/-115 — UNDER
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire receptions: 2.5 +100/-130 — UNDER
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire receiving yards: 16.5 -140/+110 — UNDER
This isn’t going to be an easy game for Edwards-Helaire based on Tampa Bay’s run defense, but I’ll play the over at 8.5 rushing attempts given the odds at +100. It’s the only over play I like for Edwards-Helaire in this game.
He only had 37 rushing yards in Week 12 against Tampa Bay, and that was when he was 100 percent healthy. He’s been over two catches just once since Week 9, and he’s been over 16 receiving yards just once over that span as well.
- Darrel Williams rushing attempts: 7.5 +110/-130 — OVER
- Darrel Williams rushing yards: 26.5 -105/-125 — UNDER
- Darrel Williams receptions: 2.5 +155/-190 — OVER
- Darrel Williams receiving yards: 12.5 -110/-120 — OVER
- Darrel Williams rushing/receiving yards: 42.5 -115/-115 — OVER
Williams probably isn’t going to do much on the ground in this game, especially with Edwards-Helaire healthy. But he does have consecutive games with 13 carries, and I’ll take my chances with the over 7.5 attempts here given the odds at +110.
I do expect Williams to be involved in the passing game, and I love the over 2.5 receptions at +155. I also like the over 12.5 receiving yards and 42.5 total yards, mostly based on his work catching the ball. Williams has two games with at least 16 receiving yards in his past four outings — both came when Edwards-Helaire was out — and two games in a row with at least 61 total yards.
- Leonard Fournette rush attempts: 11.5 -105/-125 — OVER
- Leonard Fournette rushing yards 48.5 -115/-115 — OVER
- Leonard Fournette receptions: 3.5 -140/+110 — OVER
- Leonard Fournette receiving yards: 26.5 -110/-120 – OVER
- Leonard Fournette rushing/receiving yards: 78.5 -115/-115 — UNDER
There’s a lot to like about Fournette in this game, and the over 11.5 rushing attempts should be easily accomplished. He’s had at least 12 carries in three games in a row. He’s also been over 55 rushing yards in each game over that span.
I love Fournette in the passing game as well, and he has at least four catches in each of the past three playoff games. He also has at least 32 receiving yards in three of his past five games.
I’m torn on the 78.5 total yards, and I’m nervously playing the under. He had 74 total yards against the Packers in the NFC Championship Game, and I could see something similar happening this week.
- Ronald Jones rush attempts: 8.5 -110/-120 — OVER
- Ronald Jones rushing yards: 34.5 -110/-120 — OVER
- Ronald Jones receptions: 0.5 -160/+130 — UNDER
- Ronald Jones receiving yards: 2.5 -120/-110 — OVER
- Ronald Jones rushing/receiving yards: 42.5 -110/-120 — OVER
Jones had a huge game against Kansas City in Week 12 with nine carries for 66 yards, as well as one catch for 37 yards and a touchdown. But that seems like a lifetime ago. Still, he’s had at least 10 carries in each of the past two playoff games, and 8.5 rush attempts should be easy to reach. I’ll also take the over on the 34.5 rushing yards since he’s been under that number just twice in his past seven outings.
The receiving props are interesting with Jones since he doesn’t have a reception in three games in a row, so +130 at 0.5 receptions is a great prop to play. I’ll hedge that by taking the over 2.5 receiving yards because if he does catch a pass then he should get at least 3 yards — hopefully.
Like Fournette, I’m nervous about the total yards for Jones, especially since he isn’t expected to do much in the passing game. But he’s been over 42 total yards in four of his past five games, and I’m leaning that way based on his likely rushing production.
Wide Receiver Props
(Props listed as Over/Under)
- Tyreek Hill receiving yards: 93.5 -130/+100 — OVER
- Tyreek Hill rushing yards: 5.5 -120/-110 — OVER
- Tyreek Hill receptions: 6.5 -135/+105 — OVER
Hill has five games this season with over seven catches, and every time he’s done that he’s been over 100 receiving yards. He only has two games this season with over 94 receiving yards with fewer than six catches. So you might consider pairing the two props, however you like them, given the correlation.
Against Tampa Bay in Week 12, he torched the Buccaneers for 13 catches, 269 yards and three touchdowns. And he had nine catches for 105 yards in the Super Bowl last year.
I’m also going to take the over on his 5.5 rushing yards. He’s achieved that three times in his past six games.
- Sammy Watkins receiving yards: 36.5 -115/-115 — OVER
- Sammy Watkins receptions: 3.5 +120/-150 — OVER
You have to keep an eye on Watkins with his calf injury, and hopefully he’ll play. As of Wednesday, he’s trending in the right direction despite missing the playoffs so far.
For the season, Watkins has at least four catches in six of 10 healthy games. He also has at least 38 receiving yards in six outings. And in last year’s Super Bowl he had five catches for 98 yards.
- Mecole Hardman receiving yards: 28.5 -110/-120 — OVER
- Mecole Hardman receptions: 2.5 +110/-140 — OVER
Hardman has at least three catches in four of his past six games, including three of those with Watkins on the field. I love his 2.5 receptions prop at +110.
The yardage prop might be tougher for Hardman since he’s only reached 29 receiving yards eight times in 18 games, especially if Watkins plays. But I still like his chances to come up big in this matchup.
- Mike Evans receiving yards: 62.5 -115/-115 — OVER
- Mike Evans receptions: 4.5 -110/-120 — OVER
Evans has only been over four catches and 63 receiving yards once in his past four games, but he’s had some tough matchups in the playoffs against the Saints and Packers.
He had three catches for 50 yards and two touchdowns against the Chiefs in Week 12, and I expect Brady to lean on him again this week. I have no problem playing the overs here.
- Chris Godwin receiving yards: 74.5 -125/-105 — OVER
- Chris Godwin receptions: 5.5 -130/+100 — OVER
Godwin had a huge game against Kansas City in Week 12 with eight catches for 97 yards on nine targets. That was the last time he had more than five catches in a game, but I’m playing the over here. He has at least seven targets in five games in a row, and Brady should continue to look for him this week.
Godwin has at least 79 receiving yards in four of his past five games, so going over 74.5 yards should be easy.
- Antonio Brown receiving yards: 42.5 -115/-115 — UNDER
- Antonio Brown receptions: 3.5 -125/-105 — UNDER
Brown will try to play after being out for the NFC Championship Game with a knee injury. He could be a decoy, and I’m not chancing it with his props.
He’s also been under three receptions in his past two playoff games and under 42 receiving yards in two of his past four outings overall.
- Scott Miller receptions: 1.5 +140/-170 — OVER
- Scott Miller receiving yards: 13.5 -115/-115 — OVER
Miller is talking a big game this week about being faster than Hill, so he better back it up. I love his over prop of 1.5 receptions at +140, and he had two catches for 36 yards against the Packers with Brown out. If Brown is out again, this is one of my favorite props.
I’ll also play the over 14.5 receiving yards, and he has at least 15 receiving yards in three games in a row.
Tight End Props
(Props listed as Over/Under)
- Travis Kelce receptions: 7.5 -140/+110 — OVER
- Travis Kelce receiving yards: 96.5 -115/-115 — OVER
Mahomes talking about the short-area passing game plays right into Kelce’s prop going over the 7.5 receptions. He has at least eight catches in 10 games in a row, including Week 12 against Tampa Bay when he had eight grabs for 82 yards on eight targets.
Kelce also has at least 98 receiving yards in five of his past six games, including three in a row. While Tampa Bay will try to limit Kelce, it’s hard to play any under with him involved.
- Cameron Brate receptions: 2.5 -150/+120 — OVER
- Cameron Brate receiving yards: 28.5 -115/-115 — OVER
Brate has been a star for the Buccaneers in the playoffs with at least three catches in three games in a row. Twice over that span he has at least 50 receiving yards. I’m taking the over on both of these props.
Brate also had four catches for 34 yards on six targets in Week 12 against Kansas City.
- Rob Gronkowski receptions: 2.5: -110/-120 — OVER
- Rob Gronkowski receiving yards: 28.5 -120/-110 — OVER
Gronkowski only has one game in his past seven outings with at least three catches, which was Week 15 against Atlanta. He has four games with at least 29 receiving yards over that span, but he hasn’t been highly productive of late.
That said, I’m taking the overs on both of these props. He beat up Kansas City in Week 12 with six catches for 106 yards on seven targets, and this is the Super Bowl. In his past three Super Bowl appearances with the Patriots, Gronkowski has at least six catches and 68 yards in each outing.
DFS Rankings and Lineups
DraftKings Rankings (flex pricing)
1) Patrick Mahomes $12,000
2) Tom Brady $10,000
3) Tyreek Hill $10,400
4) Travis Kelce $11,000
5) Leonard Fournette $7,800
6) Mike Evans $8,400
7) Chris Godwin $8,800
8) Darrel Williams $5,200
9) Cameron Brate $4,800
10) Rob Gronkowski $3,000
11) Mecole Hardman $5,600
12) Ronald Jones $2,200
13) Sammy Watkins $4,200
14) Scott Miller $3,400
15) Antonio Brown $6,200
16) Clyde Edwards-Helaire $7,000
17) Harrison Butker $4,000
18) Ryan Succop $3,800
19) Byron Pringle $1,800
20) Chiefs DST $2,600
Lineup 1
Captain: Patrick Mahomes $18,000
FLEX: Travis Kelce $11,000
FLEX: Tyreek Hill $10,400
FLEX: Mecole Hardman $5,600
FLEX: Rob Gronkowski $3,000
FLEX: Byron Pringle $1,800
This lineup is heavy with Chiefs as you can see, and I’m expecting Kansas City to throw a lot in this game. Pringle becomes a steal if Watkins is out or limited and Demarcus Robinson (illness) can’t play. In his past three games, Pringle has nine catches for 88 yards and a touchdown on 14 targets.
Lineup 2
Captain: Tom Brady $15,000
FLEX: Tyreek Hill $10,400
FLEX: Chris Godwin $8,800
FLEX: Mike Evans $8,400
FLEX: Cameron Brate $4,800
FLEX: Byron Pringle $1,800
This is my Buccaneers heavy lineup, going with Brady and his top receivers, including Brate. I went with Hill to balance it with the hope this game is a shootout, and I used Pringle again here based on his price.
Lineup 3
Captain: Leonard Fournette $11,700
FLEX: Patrick Mahomes $12,000
FLEX: Tyreek Hill $10,400
FLEX: Mecole Hardman $5,600
FLEX: Darrel Williams $5,200
FLEX: Cameron Brate $4,800
I wanted at least one lineup with Fournette as the Captain, and I’m using this lineup with the chance of the Buccaneers playing with a lead. The balance is the Chiefs passing game of Mahomes, Hill and Hardman, and I expect Williams to be used as a receiver quite a bit as well.
Lineup 4
Captain: Travis Kelce $16,500
FLEX: Patrick Mahomes $12,000
FLEX: Tom Brady $10,000
FLEX: Darrel Williams $5,200
FLEX: Rob Gronkowski $3,000
FLEX: Ronald Jones $2,200
I wanted at least one lineup with Kelce in the Captain spot, and I paired him with Mahomes and Williams. This lineup is slanted with the Chiefs chasing points with the hope Tampa Bay leans on Jones as well if they have a lead.
Lineup 5
Captain: Tyreek Hill $15,600
FLEX: Patrick Mahomes $12,000
FLEX: Tom Brady $10,000
FLEX: Sammy Watkins $4,200
FLEX: Cameron Brate $4,800
FLEX: Scott Miller $3,400
Again, another lineup with the Chiefs having to throw a lot, which is why I have Hill in the Captain spot and paired with Mahomes. I’ll put Watkins in there for now, but I can swap him out with someone like Gronkowski or even Pringle if needed if Watkins can’t play.
Lineup 6
Captain: Mecole Hardman $8,400
FLEX: Patrick Mahomes $12,000
FLEX: Tom Brady $10,000
FLEX: Chris Godwin $8,800
FLEX: Mike Evans $8,400
FLEX: Ronald Jones $2,200
I’m putting Hardman in the Captain spot here to see if he can have a big game, especially if Watkins doesn’t play, and set myself apart from the pack. Using Hardman at Captain is cheap, which gives you plenty of other options based on price. I paired him with Mahomes, and hopefully this game becomes a shootout with Brady, Godwin and Evans on the other side.
FanDuel Rankings
1) Patrick Mahomes $16,500
2) Tom Brady $15,000
3) Tyreek Hill $14,000
4) Travis Kelce $14,500
5) Mike Evans $11,500
6) Chris Godwin $12,000
7) Leonard Fournette $12,500
8) Darrel Williams $9,000
9) Cameron Brate $7,000
10) Mecole Hardman $7,500
11) Rob Gronkowski $6,500
12) Ronald Jones $8,000
13) Sammy Watkins $7,500
14) Scott Miller $6,500
15) Clyde Edwards-Helaire $10,000
16) Antonio Brown $9,500
17) Harrison Butker $8,500
18) Ryan Succop $8,500
19) Byron Pringle $6,000
20) Demarcus Robinson $5,500
Lineup 1
MVP: Patrick Mahomes $16,500
FLEX: Travis Kelce $14,500
FLEX: Tyreek Hill $14,000
FLEX: Mecole Hardman $7,500
FLEX: Cameron Brate $7,000
Here is my Chiefs stack, and I’m hopeful Mahomes gets at least three touchdowns to all of these receivers. You can swap out Hardman for Watkins if you want given that they’re the same price.
Lineup 2
MVP: Tom Brady $15,000
FLEX: Leonard Fournette $12,500
FLEX: Chris Godwin $12,000
FLEX: Mike Evans $11,500
FLEX: Mecole Hardman $7,500
Here’s my Buccaneers stack, and I expect Fournette to be heavily involved in the passing game. Again, you can use Watkins instead of Hardman here as well.
Lineup 3
MVP: Travis Kelce $14,500
FLEX: Patrick Mahomes $16,500
FLEX: Tom Brady $15,000
FLEX: Cameron Brate $7,000
FLEX: Rob Gronkowski $6,500
This is my tight end lineup, and you have to love the tight ends in this game. Kelce is the best tight end in the NFL, Gronkowski has a fantastic Super Bowl resume and Brate has been great for the Buccaneers in the playoffs.
Lineup 4
MVP: Tyreek Hill $14,000
FLEX: Patrick Mahomes $16,500
FLEX: Chris Godwin $12,000
FLEX: Mike Evans $11,500
FLEX: Byron Pringle $6,000
I made this my wide receiver lineup with Hill as the MVP, along with Godwin, Evans and Pringle. I paired Hill with Mahomes, and this lineup will be solid if Hill, Mahomes and Pringle all have big games, with Godwin and Evans to balance it out.
Lineup 5
MVP: Leonard Fournette $12,500
FLEX: Patrick Mahomes $16,500
FLEX: Tom Brady $15,000
FLEX: Sammy Watkins $7,500
FLEX: Cameron Brate $7,000
I did a Fournette lineup on FanDuel as well, and I balanced it with Brady and Mahomes. As I’ve said many times here, Fournette’s role in the passing game could be huge. If Watkins is out you can put Hardman in his place.
Lineup 6
MVP: Patrick Mahomes $16,500
FLEX: Tyreek Hill $14,000
FLEX: Leonard Fournette $12,500
FLEX: Darrel Williams $9,000
FLEX: Mecole Hardman $7,500
I wanted one lineup with Williams in it, and this is heavy on the Chiefs. If he catches at least three passes — and hits his prop — this lineup could be successful based on the talent around him.